Perfect 5-year model

Rich Fyle column

From the drawers of the Top Secret Fyles:

The PED issue is complicated and very likely to affect the Baseball Hall of Fame candidacies of Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and David Ortiz in various ways.

When tonight’s announcement is made for the newest Hall of Fame class, I think Ortiz has the best chance to be the lone inductee.

This is the last year on the ballot for Bonds, Clemens, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling to be elected. A candidate needs to be named on 75% of ballots for election. Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and Rodriguez have been widely linked to PED usage, while Schilling, who was a near miss last year named on 71.1% of ballots, or 16 votes short, and then he blasted electors, will probably fall short again because of his hate-filled social media posts.

The PED debate adds to the anticipation of Hall of Fame announcement. Ortiz, who tested positive for PED usage many years ago, has maintained his innocence, and if he’s elected on his first try, that would be a significant milestone for those linked to illegal PEDs.

Ortiz, a three-time World Series champ who finished his 20-year MLB career with a .286 batting average with 541 home runs, 1,768 RBIs and a .931 OPS over 2,408 games, has said his 2003 survey test could have been a false positive.

In last year’s voting in which no one was elected, Bonds received 61.8% on ballots and Clemens got 61.6% of the vote — new highs for both of them in their ninth year eligibility.

If Ortiz fails to make it this time around, he will eventually gain election down the road. As for the Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa class who may each come up short in their 10th and final time, they will be immediately eligible for consideration for election by the Today’s Game Committee, which meets in December and December 2024.

■ Thoughts on the greatest NFL playoff weekend: If Bills QB Josh Allen, whose team lost 42-36 to the Chiefs in overtime when he didn’t touched the ball, isn’t moaning over the OT rules, then it’s good enough for me. When you lose the coin toss and have to start on defense in OT, it’s up to the ‘D’ to get a stop (a harder pass rush to cause a penalty on the offense or create a turnover) along the way. You don’t need 10 stops, but you have to not allow the other team to amass first downs en route to a game-ending touchdown. The league already amended the OT rules March 23, 2010 — the defense just has to allow the offense a field goal on the first possession and then it gets the ball on offense. The NFL does not want lengthy OT games because of higher risk of players’ injuries, and longer playoff games would be punitive to the winning team for its next game.

Times sports copy editor Richard Fyle can be reached at

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